Premiership Game Score Predictions

Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW2 & MLS GW24 22016

Each week the WWW is mined. looking for nuggets of wisdom to be entered into the statistical analysis. The results are presented for your review

  • to assist with & compare to your Prediction Game choices.
  • to suggest possible lineup considerations, or transfers, for fantasy football.
  • to help with Captain choices.
  • to assist those managers who may be strapped for time.
  • to be another tool in your kit.

No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform the processes you currently use, or that they should replace what has worked for you in the past.

This past weekend’s predictions presented a complete contrast between EPL & MLS. While the EPL predictors yielded results that were similar to those witnessed last season; the MLS predictions were some of the poorest recorded in these articles.

But, please don’t shoot the messenger. I can only distill down what the sites publish and display the results of these analyses. This week’s determinations are presented below.

The statistical score predictions for EPL GW2 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Man United v Southampton 1.8-0.4 2-0 2-0
Stoke City v Man City 0.6-1.3 1-1 1-1
Burnley v Liverpool 0.5-1.6 0-1 1-2 or 0-1
Tottenham v Crystal Palace 1.7-0.1 2-0 2-0
Swansea v Hull City 1.1-0.5 1.- 1-1 or 1-0
Watford v Chelsea 0.7-1.6 1-1 1-2 or 1-1
West Brom v Everton 1.7-0.9 1-1 1-1
Leicester v Arsenal 1.3-1.6 2-2 1-2 or 2-2
Sunderland v Middlesbrough 1.1-0.9 1-1 1-1
West Ham v Bournemouth 1.7-0.7 2-0 2-1 or 2-0

A review of the sites yields the following trends –

  • Man United & Tottenham are heavy favorites to win.
  • Burnley, Swansea,Watford & West Ham are favored to win.
  • Man City could win or draw vs Stoke City.
  • Arsenal could either win or draw vs Leicester.
  • Sunderland vs Middlesbrough is leaning toward a draw.
  • West Brom vs Everton is favoring a draw.

The statistical score predictions for MLS GW24 are – 

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
San Jose v Houston 1-0.1 1-0 1-0
NY City v Los Angeles 1.3-1.5 1-1 1-1 or 1-2
Montreal v Chicago 2.3-0.5 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
New England v Columbus 1.5-0.4 2-0 2-0
Sporting KC v Vancouver 2.4-0.1 2-0 2-0
Real Salt Lake v Dallas 1.3-0.4 2-0 2-0 or 1-0
DC United v NY Red Bulls 1.7-1.1 2-1 2-1
Colorado v Orlando 1.5-0.7 1-0 2-1 pr 1-0
 Philadelphia v Toronto 1.7-1.1 2-1 2-1
 Seattle v Portland 1.3-0.1 1-0 1-0

A review of the sites yields the following trends –

  • Sporting KC & Seattle are unanimous choices to win.
  • San Jose, NY City, Montreal & New England are heavy favorites to win.’
  • Colorado is picked to win.
  • Real Salt Lake could either win or draw.
  • DC United could win or draw.
  • Philadelphia vs Toronto leans toward a draw.

The top sites from EPL GW1 were – 

# of Predictions # correct wins/draws # Correct Exact Scores 10 6 3 10 6 2 10 6 0
4 Sites tied 10 5 2 10 5 1 10 4 3
4 Sites tied 10 4 2
3 Sites tied 10 4 1 10 3 1
5 sites tied 10 3 0

16 of the 22 sites posting predictions for all 10 matches met the 40% correct win/draw benchmark. That works out to 73% of the sites.

The top sites from MLS GW23 were – 

# of Predictions # correct wins/draws # exact scores 10 5 1 10 4 2 10 4 0
Poisson Distribution Model 1 10 4 0 10 3 2 10 3 1 10 3 1 10 3 0 10 2 0 10 1 1
Poisson Distribution Model 2 10 0 0

With only 4 of 11 sites meeting the 40% benchmark, this was by far the poorest return from any week so far.

The predicted vs actual scores from EPL GW1 were – 

Home Away Predicted Score Actual Score
Bournemouth Man United 1-2 1-3
Arsenal Liverpool 2-1 3-4
Burnley Swasea 1-1 or 1-0 0-1
Chelsea West Ham 2-1 or 2-0 2-1
Crydtal Palace West Brom 1-1 0-1
Everton Tottenham 1-2 1-1
Hull City Leicester 0-2 2-1
Man City Sunderland 3-0 2-1
Middlesbrough Stoke City 1-1 or 1-0 1-1
Southampton Watford 2-1 1-1

Using the predictions published would have yielded 4 correct win/draw results, and 2 possible exact scores.

The predicted vs actual scores from MLS GW23 were – 

Home Away Predicted Score Actual Score
Vancouver San Jose 1-0 1-2
DC Portland 1-1 2-0
NY Red Bulls Montreal 2-1 or 1-0 3-1
Columbus NY City 2-1 or 2-2 3-3
New England Philadelphia 2-1 0-4
Dallas Sporting KC 2-0 or 1-0 2-2
Houston Toronto 1-1 or 0-1 1-1
Los Angeles Colorado 1-0 or 2-0 1-1
Chicago Orlando 1-1 or 1-0 2-2
Seattle Real Salt Lake 1-1 or 1-0 2-1

If there were a competition for score prediction in MLS, following the published scores would have yielded 5 win/draw results and 1 exact score.

As stated each week, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old adage is so true, as it applies to predicting football score lines. It is also a reminder that when we make plans, God laughs.

I hope all have fun playing the Prediction Game (open to all site regulars), and until next week, good luck with the numbers game.


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78 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. 6th year in FPL & second full year writing for FantasyFootballFirst. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.

25 thoughts on “Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW2 & MLS GW24 22016

  1. Thanks Mosc.

    I imagine that the score predictions are a little harder to make at the start of the season, as form etc has not been established yet.

    • @OldGoat Absolutely, everyone had Hull down as rubbish, probably lowest points total ever, and the silly sods go and win in GW1, too funny really.

      • @Rusty Harpoon mosc is quite correct though, he’s using previous season’s stats, I suspect a look at other good prediction sites and a bit of Floridian hocus-pocus.
        As Goat has already said, too difficult at start of season. After Int break, you watch how old moscy gets close to the right patterns. :thumbup:

    • @Secret Zorro I really made a mess this week. Put the wrong prediction table for GW2 in the article. Corrected now, so you may have to make some correcctions if you used the table as a guide. When you mentioned the Man United score it didn’t seem correct and I found the error. Thanks. :thumbup:

      • @mosc1938 No worries mate; but we’re going to look really daft if it’s Utd 1 v Soton 2 now. That’s how my luck usually goes, lol.
        Thx for your hard work. :thumbup:

  2. Man United v Southampton 2-0
    Stoke City v Man City 0-2
    Burnley v Liverpool 1-2
    Tottenham v Crystal Palace 4-0
    Swansea v Hull City 0-0
    Watford v Chelsea 1-3
    West Brom v Everton 0-2
    Leicester v Arsenal 2-2
    Sunderland v Middlesbrough 1-2
    West Ham v Bournemouth 1-0

  3. Hi All, Just wanted to advise you that the statistical table published for EPL this week was incorrect. Somehow I copied & pasted the table from GW1 and missed the mistake in my proofreading. It has been corrected in the article and if you had used this as a guide, please reread it and adjust your predictions in the game. Thanks to Secret Zorro for his comment about Man United losing to S’ton; that didn’t hit a right chord with me and I doubled checked the table. Sorry for the screwup. Hope I didn’t cause too many problems. I wasn’t trying to mislead you to get ahead in the game.

    • @mosc1938 Chill bro’, you’re doing fine and it’s been corrected, so relax, GW2’s about to commence. It takes a few weeks to get a ‘balance’ in these predictions anyway :thumbup:

  4. :yahoo: 3rd in GW1, thanks to mosc1938. Now I can quit cause its all down hill from here. Just kidding and having some fun. :nahnah: Maybe top 50%. :fingerscrossed:

  5. Hi everyone. Each week I have been including tables that compare predicted scores vs actual results. I feel that I am duplicating work since the predicted scores are already listed in tabular form.
    I would like to hear from all who read the article as to whether they feel these tables are of any value, or can I dispense with the predicted v actual tables in the future.
    Since the predictions are available, you can easily compare the actual results on your own if wanted.
    Please let me know one way or the other before next week.

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