The International break felt like a mini vacation. Only 4 games in MLS to contend with during this period, so this gave me time to play fantasy “Daily 11’s” and “Predictor” with the European Qualifiers. This didn’t work out too well as I missed deadlines 2 days running but will continue in November and try to win a prize.
The European and World Cup Qualifiers can result in headaches for lineups due to the possibilities for injury to key players, either in training or competition. Check for the latest injury updates on the physio sites.
On the MLS front, some players have been released from National team duties early and may be set to play midweek or this weekend.
As stated each week, no claims are made that the results presented here will outperform the processes you currently use or should replace what has worked for you in the past. They are offered for your review –
- to assist with and compare to your Prediction Game choices.
- to present possible lineup strategies or transfers, for your fantasy teams.
- to assist with Captain selection.
- to be a time saver for those managers lacking time to surf the Web.
- to add another tool to your kit.
With only 6 sites posting predictions the statistical results do not provide the most confidence. A review of these sites reveals the following trends.
- Philadelphia and Toronto are unanimous choices to win.
- NY Red Bulls, DC United,Chicago, Dallas, Portland and San Jose are favored to win.
- Houston vs Los Angeles is projected as a draw.
- Real Salt Lake vs Sporting KC is projected as a draw.
The statistical predictions for MLS GW 33
| Home | v | Away | Mean | Mode | Stats. Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | v | Orlando | 2-0.8 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| NY Red Bulls | v | Columbus | 2.4-0.6 | 2-0 | 2-1 or 2-0 |
| Montreal | v | Toronto | 0.8-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| DC United | v | NY City | 1.8-1.5 | 2-1 | 2-2 or 2-1 |
| Chicago | v | New England | 1.8-1.3 | 3-2 | 2-1 or 3-2 |
| Dallas | v | Seattle | 1.8-0.6 | 2-0 | 2-1 or 2-0 |
| Houston | v | Los Angeles | 1-1.1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Portland | v | Colorado | 1.8-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Real Salt Lake | v | Sporting KC | 0.8-0.6 | 1-0 | 1-1 or 1-0 |
| San Jose | v | Vancouver | 1.5-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 or 1-0 |
As we prepare for GW 8 there will be an additional feature to accompany the statistical predictions. The RMT bot runs simulations of each weeks’ matches and one feature it yields is a percent value for a possible clean sheet. In the write-up, prior to the tabular data, I will include the percentages predicted for cleans sheets.
A review of the sites posting predictions reveals the following.
- Chelsea is a heavy favorite to win at home v Leicester, with a 26.0% chance of a CS.
- Arsenal is a heavy favorite to win at home v Swansea, with a 43.8% chance of a CS.
- Bournemouth is favored to win at home v Hull City, with a 30.0% chance of a CS.
- Man City is a unanimous choice to win at home v Everton, with a 26.6% chance of a CS.
- Stoke v Sunderland is projected as a draw, with a 24.0% chance of a CS.
- Tottenham is a heavy favorite to win in their visit to West Brom, with a 31.4% chance of a CS.
- Crystal Palace is favored to win at home v West Ham, with a 24.4% chance of a CS.
- Watford is a slight favorite to win in their visit to Middlesbrough, with a 22.6% chance of a CS.
- Southampton is a heavy favorite to win at home v Burnley, with a 40.8% chance of a CS.
- Liverpool is favored to win at home v Man United, with a 29.0% chance of a CS.
Based on the above observations 2 teams have a better than 40% chance for a CS this week, Arsenal and So’ton.
Let me know if the CS projections are of interest to anyone and I’ll try to include them weekly.
The statistical predictions for PL GW 8.
| Home | v | Away | Mean | Mode | Stats. Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | v | Leicester | 2.3-0.5 | 2-0 | 2-1 or 2-0 |
| Arsenal | v | Swansea | 2.2-0.4 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Bournemouth | v | Hull City | 1.2-0.5 | 1-0 | 1-1 or 1-0 |
| Man City | v | Everton | 1.8-0.6 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Stoke City | v | Sunderland | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| West Brom | v | Tottenham | 0.5-1.6 | 0-2 | 1-2 or 0-2 |
| Crystal Palace | v | West Ham | 1.8-0.8 | 3-1 | 2-1 or 3-1 |
| Middlesbrough | v | Watford | 0.9-1.4 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Southampton | v | Burnley | 1.5-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Liverpool | v | Man United | 2.1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
The top ten sites from GW 7.
| # of Predictions | # correct wins/draws | # Correct Exact Scores | |
|---|---|---|---|
| bookies.com | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| whoscored.com | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| skysports.com | 10 | 6 | 2 |
| predictz.com | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| weekendfootball.co.uk | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| goal.com | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| premierleaguepropredictions.eu | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| soccerwinners.com | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| footballburp.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| footballoctopus.com | 10 | 4 | 2 |
“You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old adage holds much truth as it applies to football scoreline prediction.
In closing, I hope all managers are enjoying the ongoing competition (open to all site regulars). It is never too late to join and with the right choices you can easily make your way into the top echelon.
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Thx mosc
Great use of Bot data. Thanks Mosc.
Thanks Mosc.
I actually had a decent week last week after paying extra close attention to your article.
@OldGoat Only too happy to help out.
Interesting how the percentage of simulations that result in a clean sheet is so high for Arsenal and Spurs
I think the Clean Sheet percentages would be a useful addition to the armoury.
Gutted that I don’t have any Arsenal or Southampton defenders.
@Kumast
GW 27 is a long way off for a certain clean sheet
Ok , that’s weird. Kumast had posted a comment stating that he had Koscielny.
The post has now disappeared!!
@OldGoat My computer has anti Liverpool-joke software installed!
@Kumast
I bet that its kept busy
As you have taken my fun away, its time for me to log-off
the CS projections are excellent! Keep it up!
@feitonghofei
Mosc, top notch work. picks complete, best of luck to all!!!
@Coquis60 Thanks, and good luck also.
Great work Mosc thanks a lot pal, good luck
@Iron iron iron I appreciate the fact that you take the data into account. I always hope that it is of use to someone. Good luck.