“You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old saying has so much relevance when applied to predicting football scorelines. The prediction game isn’t a true science; it’s more akin to Alchemy or the dark arts. But each week an attempt is made to bring this art under control.
The regular season has ended in MLS and our attention has been refocused on the Bracket Challenge. I hope all have their picks in and saved as the matches start this evening. No more endless searches for sites that post predictions for MLS games. I can concentrate all my energy on the Premier League.
Before getting into the site and statistical results be aware that EFL Cup matches were contested this week. Arsenal. Hull Liverpool and Tottenham of Tuesday, and both Manchester teams, So’ton and Sunderland on Wednesday. A lot of non-first XI players were involved in some games but it appeared that Man United went out for the win.
As always, no claims are made that the results reported here will outperform the processes you currently use. They are presented to be of use in possible lineup changes, transfers, Captain selections and mainly to compare to the score predictions you are contemplating.
Prior to the first matches being played I usually have access to 25-27 sites with their predictions. Not all make it into the statistical analysis but are reviewed for inclusion in the Top Sites listing. This list is limited to sites that have recorded at least a 40% correct win/draw result. Whether made by pundits, ex players/managers who rely on their insider contacts to form their predictions or by computer algorithms, if the weekly results were to be graphed they would resemble the EKG of a heart patient, eg, a series of peaks and valleys.
This week’s review of the sites available as of this writing also again includes the results of the RMT Bot’s match simulations for comparison. The following trends are revealed.
- Arsenal is a unanimous pick on it’s visit to Sunderland and is also a Bot pick (2-1) with a 30.6% chance of a CS.
- Man United is a unanimous pick over Burnley and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 47.2% chance of a CS.
- Middlesbrough v Bournemouth favors a draw but the Bot picks Boro (1-0) with a 31.3% chance of a CS.
- Tottenham is a heavy favorite over Leicester and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 41.8% chance of a CS.
- Watford is a heavy favorite over Hull City and also a Bot pick (2-1) with a 33.2% chance of a CS.
- Man City is a heavy favorite at West Brom and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 29.4% chance of a CS.
- Liverpool is a heavy favorite at Crystal Palace and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 21.3% chance of a CS.
- Everton is a heavy favorite over West Ham and also a Bot Pick (1-0) with a 28% chance of a CS.
- So’ton v Chelsea favors a draw but the Bot picks So’ton (1-0) with a 36.4% chance of a CS.
- Stoke is favored over Swansea with a chance of a draw and the Bot picks Stoke (1-0) with a 27.2% chance of a CS.
Man United and Tottenham show the highest percentage for the chance of a CS, followed by So’ton, Watford, Boro and Arsenal.
The Top sites were limited to those reporting a 50% correct win/draw result but an additional 4 sites came in a 40%.
The statistical predictions for PL GW 10 are
| Home | v | Away | Mean | Mode | Stats. Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | v | Arsenal | 0.4-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Man United | v | Burnley | 2.4-0.1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Middlesbrough | v | Bournemouth | 0.7-0.8 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Tottenham | v | Leicester | 2-0.3 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Watford | v | Hull City | 1.8-0.6 | 3-0 | 2-1 or 3-0 |
| West Brom | v | Man City | 0.6-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Crystal Palace | v | Liverpool | 0.7-1.7 | 1-1 | 1-2 or 1-1 |
| Everton | v | West Ham | 1.7-0.6 | 2-0 | 2-1 or 2-0 |
| Southampton | v | Chelsea | 1.1-1.1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Stoke City | v | Swansea | 1.3-0.7 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
The Top Sites from PL GW 9 were –
| # of Predictions | # correct wins/draws | # Correct Exact Scores | |
|---|---|---|---|
| football predictions.com | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| bbc.com (LAWRO) | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| Poisson Model 2 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| foot statts.com | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| premier league pro predictions.eu | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| goal.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| prosoccer.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| skysports.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| zcode system.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| mrbigwin.com | 10 | 5 | 0 |
I hope that all managers are enjoying the Prediction Game which is open to all site regulars. The competition appears to be reduced to 60+ managers at this point.
Until next week , Good Luck in the numbers game.
Authors
- Bio
- Latest posts
Great work Mosc
Thanks @mosc1938 – great insights here.
Nice write up, always infomitive
Thanks Mosc.
Will the Bot predictions be a regular feature?
@OldGoat I hope so, as long as the Boss is comfortable providing them to me.
@mosc1938
It appears that the Bot favours the 1-0 scoreline this week, with 8 of this weeks games predicted to finish this way.
@OldGoat Yes, it differs from what the pundits and site computer predict. There were seven 1-0 predictions last week also. I’ll have to keep an eve on that.
Thanks for another helpful article, it all helps in the never-ending quest for a perfect fantasy team.
@Kralin As I mentioned it is a combination of alchemy and delving into the dark arts.
@mosc1938 as long as you’re not prodding sharp sticks into a Kun voodoo doll, I don’t really mind.
@Kralin Haven’t gotten that far yet as he is still in my team. LOL
To drift completely off-topic, what is the feeling over there, outside of the media, about Trump versus Clinton? I have no idea who you support (if either), which is of course your own business, but is there any possibility of Trump winning? Or will it be 1-0 to Clinton?
@Kralin – Trump does not have a chance mate. Despite all his talking.
Even the English bookies have her at 1-5 or 1-6. Polls are higher this end.
The Latinos, African Americans, Women, and all other sane persons will make sure the crazy one does not get his finger on the nuclear button.
@bees393 I saw the bookies’ odds, though they (or rather the punters) were wrong on Brexit in the UK. But your words are reassuring.
@Kralin – Other than Brexit and Leicester I think they are mostly right. They were on Obama 2-1 when he first ran against McCain.
It is the nuttiest drama over here. I can hardly wait for it to be over.
Back to footie…would you say this was my best line-up and Cpt choice?
Thanks!
Click to enlarge image
@bees393 Yes, team and captain both in very good shape.
@Kralin – Thanks!
@bees393 Personally I feel like neither is a quality candidate. More like a choice between Hitler and Stalin.
@mosc1938 Aren’t you lot bored to death with this; nearly 2 years to pick a president? What’s wrong with 2 or 3 months like the rest of the world…
@SecretZorro True it makes me want to puke. More than likely the day after elections the campaign will begin for the next four years to see who the next idiot will be. The system here is f’ed up; early voting, mail-in ballots, etc. I don’t see what was wrong with the old system, you voted on election day. Long lines are to blame but the early voters all stand in long lines to vote?? I may follow my doctors’ lead and vote for my dog.
@mosc1938 Lol, play offs soon. Hoping Seattle & DC win 🙂
@SecretZorro Same here picked both. Watched the LA game in Spanish. Have to learn a second language but you really don’t need the commentary.
@SecretZorro Ciman for MTL. In a hole already. United have to bounce back.
@mosc1938 no worries, 3-1 DCU
@SecretZorro not much of a crowd though.
@SecretZorro OK, make that 3-2
@SecretZorro OK, DC are screwed, me too, sigh.
cheers mosc, good luck today