“You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old saying has so much relevance when applied to predicting football scorelines. The prediction game isn’t a true science; it’s more akin to Alchemy or the dark arts. But each week an attempt is made to bring this art under control.
The regular season has ended in MLS and our attention has been refocused on the Bracket Challenge. I hope all have their picks in and saved as the matches start this evening. No more endless searches for sites that post predictions for MLS games. I can concentrate all my energy on the Premier League.
Before getting into the site and statistical results be aware that EFL Cup matches were contested this week. Arsenal. Hull Liverpool and Tottenham of Tuesday, and both Manchester teams, So’ton and Sunderland on Wednesday. A lot of non-first XI players were involved in some games but it appeared that Man United went out for the win.
As always, no claims are made that the results reported here will outperform the processes you currently use. They are presented to be of use in possible lineup changes, transfers, Captain selections and mainly to compare to the score predictions you are contemplating.
Prior to the first matches being played I usually have access to 25-27 sites with their predictions. Not all make it into the statistical analysis but are reviewed for inclusion in the Top Sites listing. This list is limited to sites that have recorded at least a 40% correct win/draw result. Whether made by pundits, ex players/managers who rely on their insider contacts to form their predictions or by computer algorithms, if the weekly results were to be graphed they would resemble the EKG of a heart patient, eg, a series of peaks and valleys.
This week’s review of the sites available as of this writing also again includes the results of the RMT Bot’s match simulations for comparison. The following trends are revealed.
- Arsenal is a unanimous pick on it’s visit to Sunderland and is also a Bot pick (2-1) with a 30.6% chance of a CS.
- Man United is a unanimous pick over Burnley and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 47.2% chance of a CS.
- Middlesbrough v Bournemouth favors a draw but the Bot picks Boro (1-0) with a 31.3% chance of a CS.
- Tottenham is a heavy favorite over Leicester and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 41.8% chance of a CS.
- Watford is a heavy favorite over Hull City and also a Bot pick (2-1) with a 33.2% chance of a CS.
- Man City is a heavy favorite at West Brom and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 29.4% chance of a CS.
- Liverpool is a heavy favorite at Crystal Palace and also a Bot pick (1-0) with a 21.3% chance of a CS.
- Everton is a heavy favorite over West Ham and also a Bot Pick (1-0) with a 28% chance of a CS.
- So’ton v Chelsea favors a draw but the Bot picks So’ton (1-0) with a 36.4% chance of a CS.
- Stoke is favored over Swansea with a chance of a draw and the Bot picks Stoke (1-0) with a 27.2% chance of a CS.
Man United and Tottenham show the highest percentage for the chance of a CS, followed by So’ton, Watford, Boro and Arsenal.
The Top sites were limited to those reporting a 50% correct win/draw result but an additional 4 sites came in a 40%.
The statistical predictions for PL GW 10 are
|Watford||v||Hull City||1.8-0.6||3-0||2-1 or 3-0|
|West Brom||v||Man City||0.6-2||1-2||1-2|
|Crystal Palace||v||Liverpool||0.7-1.7||1-1||1-2 or 1-1|
|Everton||v||West Ham||1.7-0.6||2-0||2-1 or 2-0|
The Top Sites from PL GW 9 were –
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|Poisson Model 2||10||6||1|
|premier league pro predictions.eu||10||5||1|
I hope that all managers are enjoying the Prediction Game which is open to all site regulars. The competition appears to be reduced to 60+ managers at this point.
Until next week , Good Luck in the numbers game.