Each week the WWW is mined, looking for those nuggets of wisdom to be entered into the statistical analysis. The results are presented for your review
- to assist with and compare to your Prediction Game choices.
- to suggest possible lineup strategies, or transfers, for fantasy football.
- to help with Captain choices.
- to assist managers who are strapped for time.
- to add another tool to your kit.
No claims are made that any results presented here will outperform the processes you currently use, or that they should replace what has worked for you in the past.
There are no Premier League predictions this week due to the International break, which also effects MLS with only 6 matches scheduled.
Before getting to the MLS predictions, let’s take a moment to review the site predictions from EPL GW3. Whether the pundits saw obvious outcomes to the matches, and the math models were tweaked to operate at peak efficiency, last weeks’ predictions were outstanding. The top 2 sites posted a 90% correct return, while 3 through 7 showed an 80% return. I believe that this is the best showing over the span of these articles.
The top ten sites from EPL GW3
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|bbc.com – LAWRO||10||8||2|
With another short turn around time in MLS, only 2 sites and the Poisson Models have complete predictions. Keep this in mind when using these results for any determinations. The following trends emerge from the spotty postings.
- Dallas and Los Angeles are unanimous picks to win, and both play at home.
- NY City is a heavy favorite to win at home.
- NY Red Bulls are picked to win on the road.
- Philadelphia could either win or draw at Chicago.
- New England v Colorado has no clear cut favorite and trends toward a draw.
The statistical predictions for MLS GW27 are
|NY City||v||DC United||1.2-0.7||1-0||1-1 or 1-0|
|Vancouver||v||NY Red Bulls||0.7-1.7||1-1||1-2 or 1-1|
|New England||v||Colorado||0.5-0.6||0-0||0-0 or 1-1|
|Chicago||v||Philadelphia||1-1.2||1-1 or 1-2||1-1 or 1-2|
|Dallas||v||Portland||2-0||1-0 or 2-0||1-0 or 2-0|
9 out of 10 sites met, or exceeded, the 40% correct win/draw benchmark. The top site did very well with an 80% return.
The top sites from MLS GW26 were
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# exact scores|
|Poisson Distribution Model 1||10||5||0|
|Poisson Distribution Model 2||10||5||0|
As stated each week, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old adage is so true as it applies to predicting football score lines, and is also a reminder that when we makes plans, God laughs.
I hops all have fun playing the Prediction Game (open to all site regulars), and until next week, good luck in the numbers game.