Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW5 and MLS GW29

Each week the WWW is mined, looking for nuggets of wisdom to be entered into the statistical analysis. The results are presented for your review –

  • to assist with and compare to your Prediction Game choices.
  • to present possible lineup strategies, or transfers, to your fantasy teams.
  • to help with Captain selection.
  • to assist any managers who lack time to surf the Web for predictions.
  • to add another tool to your kit.

No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform the processes you currently use, or that they should replace what has worked for you in the past.

The Premier League was involved with Champions League matches midweek, so be aware of any injuries that may have occurred.  Individual players were also involved with their National Teams in the Euro qualifiers, so the same warnings apply there.

A review of the 13 sites and 3 Poisson Distribution Models, available at this writing, reveals the following trends –

  • Both Man City and Tottenham are unanimous picks to win.
  • Arsenal, Leicester, Everton, Man United and Southampton are heavy favorites to win.
  • West Ham is a slight pick vs West Brom.
  • Both Chelsea and Crystal Palace are picked to either win or draw.

The statistical Predictions for EPL GW5 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Chelsea v Liverpool 1.9-1.1 2-1 2-1
Hull City v Arsenal 0.5-1.3 0-1 1-1 or 0-1
Leicester v Burnley 1.5-0.3 1-0 2-0 or 1-0
Man City v Bournemouth 2.9-0.2 2-0 or 3-0 3-0 or 2-0
West Brom v West Ham 0.8-1.1 1-1 1-1
Everton v Middlesbrough 1.3-0.4 1-0 1-0
Watford v Man United 0.5-2.2 1-3 1-2 or 1-3
Crystal Palace v Stoke 1.2-0.6 1-1 1-1
Southampton v Swansea 1.5-0.6 1-1 2-1 or 1-1
Tottenham v Sunderland 2.1-0.3 2-0 2-0

The top ten sites from EPL GW4 were –

# of Predictions # correct wins/draws # Correct Exact Scores 10 7 1 10 5 2 10 5 1 10 5 0 10 5 0 10 4 1 10 4 1 10 4 0 10 4 0 10 4 0

Overall, out of the 21 sites posting predictions, along with 2 Poisson Distribution Models, 13 met the 40% correct win/draw benchmark. This was a dramatic drop compared to last week’s results. The predictions are so very fickle.

As of this writing only 5 sites and the 2 Poisson Distribution Models posted predictions. MLS is winding down, but be aware of the DGWs and BGWs looming on the horizon. There is also the opportunity to use a WC, if it is still an option, and the unlimited transfers available GW33.

The statistical predictions for MLS GW29 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Chicago v DC United 1.1-0.8 1-1 1-1
Seattle v Vancouver 1.5-0.1 1-0 2-0 or 1-0
Portland v Philadelphia 2-0.8 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
NY City v Dallas 1.6-1.1 1-1 2-1 or 1-1
Montreal v New England 1.5-0.5 2-1 2-1
Orlando v Columbus 1.5-1 2-1 2-1
Colorado v San Jose 1.1-0.4 1-0 1-0
Sporting KC v Los Angeles 1-1 1-1 1-1
Toronto v NY Red Bulls 1.7-0.5 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
Real Salt Lake v Houston 1.3-0.5 2-0 1-1 or 2-0

As stated each week, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This adage is so true, as it applies to predicting  football scorelines, and is also a constant reminder that when we make plans, God laughs.

I hope all enjoy the competition of the Prediction Game (open to all site regulars), and until next week, Good luck in the numbers game.


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77 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. 6th year in FPL & second full year writing for FantasyFootballFirst. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.

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