Premiership Game Score Predictions

Sorting the Score Predictions EPL GW4 & MLS GW28 2016

Each week the WWW is mined, looking for those nuggets of wisdom to be entered into the statistical analysis. The results are posted for your review, and –

  • to assist with and compare with your Prediction Game choices.
  • to present possible lineup strategies, or transfers, to your fantasy teams.
  • to assist with Captain choices.
  • to assist any managers who lack time to surf the Web for predictions.
  • to add another tool to your kit.

No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform the processes you currently use, or that they should replace what has worked for you in the past.

This week starts with Man City, missing Aguero and Kompany, visiting Old Trafford where Shaw, Valencia and Mkhitaryan are doubts. This match is favoring a United win, or a draw. A further look at the predictions yields these trends –

  • Arsenal, Tottenham, West Ham and Chelsea are heavy favorites to win.
  • Middlesbrough are picked over Palace.
  • Burnley are slight favorites over Hull City.
  • Liverpool are trending toward a win or draw.
  • Everton are favored over Sunderland, with the possibility of a draw.
  • Everything is pointing to a draw between Bournemouth and West Brom.

The statistical predictions for EPL GW4 –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Man United v Man City 1.8-1 1-1 or 2-1 1-1 or 2-1
Arsenal v Southampton 1.8-0.4 2-0 2-0
Bournemouth v Wesr Brom 0.7-0.6 1-1 1-1
Burnley v Hull City 0.9-0.8 1-1 1-1
Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace 1-0.4 1-0 1-0
Stoke City v Tottenham 0.8-1.5 1-2 1-2
West Ham v Watford 1.4-0.4 1-0 1-0
Liverpool v Leicester 1.5-1 1-0 2-1 or 1-0
Swansea v Chelsea 0.7-2 1-2 1-2
Sunderland v Everton 0.8-1 1-1 1-1

This week in MLS offers a DGW for 4 teams; Montreal, Orlando, Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles. The few sites which have posted predictions at this date reveal these trends –

    • Dallas, Portland (vs Real Salt Lake) and NY Red Bulls are unanimous picks to win.
    • Montreal are heavy favorites in the opening match of the week, but 3 days later are picked to lose vs Philadelphia.
    • Orlando are picked to lose both of their matches.
    • Los Angeles are losers vs Real Salt Lake, but heavy favorites over visiting Orlando.
    • Columbus are heavy favorites over Vancouver.
    • Sporting KC and NY City are favorites.
    • Toronto favored over Chicago.
    • San Jose vs Seattle trend toward a draw.

The statistical Predictions for MLS GW28 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Montreal v Orlando 2.2-1 2-1 2-1
Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles 1.1-0.8 1-0 1-0 or 1-1
Sporting KC v Houston 1.1-0.1 1-0 1-0
Columbus v Vancouver 2-0.5 2-1 2-1
Philadelphia v Montreal 1.6-0.6 1-1 2-1 or 1-1
New England v NY City 0.7-1.4 1-2 1-1 or 1-2
Chicago v Toronto 0.5-1.1 0-1 or 1-1 1-1 or 0-1
Dallas v Colorado 1.5-0.2 1-0 2-0 or 1-0
Portland v Real Salt Lake 1.8-0.8 2-1 2-1
San Jose v Seattle 0.5-1 1-0 or 1-1 1-1 or 1-0
NY Red Bulls v DC United 1.6-0.2 1-0 2-0 or 1-0
Los Angeles v Orlando 2-0.8 2-0 2-1 or 2-0

Be aware that MLS managers are prone to substitutions during DGWs, with very few attackers usually playing both matches. You can have better luck playing defenders who have DGWs. Also, some players may not have returned from International duty, so keep abreast of the news reports and check possible lineups. With a Wednesday night start, it makes fielding a definite XI extremely difficult.

The top 2 sites from GW27 were and, with 5-0 records from the 6 matches. The Poisson Model, based on 2016 data, had the worst record at 2-0. 9 of the 10 met the 40 % benchmark.

As stated each week in closing, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old adage is so true, as it applies to predicting football scorelines, and it is a constant reminder that when we make plans, God laughs.

I hope all have fun playing the Prediction Game (open to site regulars), and until next week, good luck in the numbers game.


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78 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. 6th year in FPL & second full year writing for FantasyFootballFirst. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.

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