Premiership Game Score Predictions

Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW3 & MLS GW26 2016

Each week the WWW is mined, looking for nuggets of wisdom to be entered the statistical analysis. The results are presented for your review

  • to assist with, and compare, to your Prediction Game choices.
  • to suggest possible lineup strategies or transfers for fantasy football.
  • to help with Captain choices.
  • to assist those managers strapped for time.
  • to add another tool to your kit.

No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform the processes you currently, or that they should replace what has worked for you in the past.

There are 12 EPL teams with EFL Cup matches midweek, and Man City with a Champions League match. Monitor these team for possible injuries or players being rested. This week will be followed by the International break, and EPL will resume 10/9.

On a similar note, MLS has entered a hectic period with 6 matches on Wednesday, followed by a full 10 match schedule 8/26 through 8/28. This will then lead into a BGW27 ( 6 matches), starting 9/1.

A review of the sites posting as of this time reveals the following trends –

    • Chelsea, Everton, Leicester, Southampton & Man City are heavy favorites to win, with only 1-3 sites predicting other outcomes.
    • Arsenal & Man United are favored to win, with 5 sites predicting other outcomes.
    • Crystal Palace v Bournemouth favor a draw.
    • West Brom v Middlesbrough favor a draw.
    • Tottenham v Liverpool seems to favor a ‘Pool win or draw.

The statistical score predictions for EPL GW3 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Chelsea v Burnley 1.8-0.6 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth 1-0.8 1-1 1-1
Everton v Stoke 1.7-0.6 2-1 or 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
Hull City v Man United 0.4-1.5 0-2 0-2
Leicester v Swansea 1.6-0.2 2-0 2-0
Southampton v Sunderland 1.9-0.5 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
Tottenham v Liverpool 1.6-1.1 2-1 2-1
Watfird v Arsenal 0.6-1.6 1-1 1-2 or 1-1
Man City v West Ham 1.9-0.8 2-0 2-1 or 2-0
West Brom v Middlesbrough 0.7-0.7 1-1 1-1

GW2’s top ten sites all exceeded the 40% benchmark, with 8 additional sites also meeting/exceeding that level. This left 5 sites which performed poorly.

The EPL GW2 top ten sites were –

# of Predictions # correct wins/draws # Correct Exact Scores 10 7 2 10 7 1 10 6 2 10 6 2 10 6 1 10 6 1 10 6 0 10 5 3 10 5 3 10 5 3

The prediction sites for MLS were kind of spotty, I think due to the quick turn around time. The sites that did post revealed the following trends –

  • DC United & NY Red Bulls are unanimous picks to win.
  • Real Salt Lake, Toronto, LA, Portland & NY City are favored to win.
  • Philadelphia is a slight favorite over Sporting KC.
  • Houston is a slight edge over Dallas, but could end a draw.
  • Columbus v San Jose could go either way, with home team having a slight edge.

The Statistical Predictions for MLS GW26 are –

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Real Salt Lake v Colorado 1.1-0.4 1-0 1-0
DC United v Chicago 1.3-0.1 1-0 1-0
Philadelphia v Sporting KC 1.5-0.6 1-0 1-1 or 1-0
Columbus v San Jose 1.3-1 1-1 or 2-1 1-1 or 2-1
Toronto v Montreal 1.7-0.3 2-0 2-0
Houston v Dallas 1.3-0.5 1-0 1-1 or 1-0
Los Angeles v Vancouver 2-0 2-0 2-0
NY Red Bulls v New England 2.5-0.2 3-0 3-0
Portland v Seattle 1.7-0.8 2-1 2-1
Orlando v NY City 1.1-1.8 1-2 1-2

I am not posting the top sites table from GW25. Only 3 of the 11 sites met the 40% benchmark. That’s 2 weeks on the bounce with poor returns.

As stated each week, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”. This old adage is so true, as it applies to predicting football score lines, and is a reminder that when we make plans, God laughs.

I hope all have fun playing the Prediction Game (open to all site regulars), and until next week, good luck with the numbers game.


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78 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. 6th year in FPL & second full year writing for FantasyFootballFirst. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.

8 thoughts on “Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW3 & MLS GW26 2016

  1. Thanks Mosc,

    I need to pay more attention to this article, as I have been letting my heart rule my head with the predictions, which has resulted in a poor showing in the Predictions League :thumbup:

    • @Terminators Thanks for bringing this up. I’ve completely forgotten about him. He usually posts on Friday before weekend matches so he doesn’t get into the stat analysis. Last year he was correct with win/draw predictions 46% of the time and exact scores 9.5%. His predictions were about par for all predictors. So they are as good as any of the sites on line. I’ll put him back in the rotation for top ten sites this week. :thumbup:

      • @mosc1938 he mostly goes for 2-0’s. in fact this week he’s gone for 7 out of 10 to be 2-0. pretty sure he notched up 8 2-0’s one week last season!

        • @Secret Zorro Yeah I agree he is, but over the years you sort of get to you know trust them a bit on what they say, he does know about football, just looking at the ones listed above I have not heard of most of them so it takes time to trust them.
          The only thing about Lawro is that he is not afraid to pick draws and, you look at some of the draws he picks “you lol and think not a chance” and then the result is a draw and you look again and it was an obvious draw.

  2. My #1 go to man. I won’t make a guess at the predictions without reading your article first. :thumbup: :tiphat:

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