Once again midweek Champion’s League matches were contested by Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester. Be aware of who took part and may be rested, who was kept out and if there were any injuries. Following this weekend there is another International Break. So make hay while the sun shines.
Last week saw 11 sites recording correct results between 60-80%. The RMT Optibot came in at 70%. A decent week for the predictors. But, as always, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”.
A review of the sites posting predictions reveals the following trends –
- Bournemouth is a heavy favorite over Sunderland, and the Bot agrees with a 35.8% chance of a CS.
- Burnley is a slight favorite over Crystal Palace, and the Bot agrees with a 33.8% chance of a CS.
- Manchester City is a unanimous pick over Middlesbrough, and the Bot agrees with a 44% chance of a CS.
- West Ham vs Stoke City points to a draw, but the Bot favors the Hammers with a 48.4% chance of a CS.
- Chelsea is a heavy favorite over Everton, and the Bot agrees with a 30% chance of a CS.
- Arsenal is a slight favorite over Tottenham with the possibility of a draw, and the Bot agrees with a 26.4% chance of a CS for the Gunners and 22% chance of a CS for the Spurs.
- Southampton is a heavy favorite on their visit to Hull City, and the Bot agrees with a 32.8% chance of a CS.
- Liverpool is a unanimous pick over Watford, and the Bot agrees with a 33.4% chance of a CS.
- Manchester United is a heavy favorite on their visit to Swansea, and the Bot agrees with a 30.2% chance of a CS.
- Leicester City is a heavy favorite over West Brom, and the Bot agrees with a 39% chance of a CS.
The CS percentages will take a while to get a handle on. At present, I am looking at 40%, and above, as a good starting value to predict a CS, but this may not be the case. As with any math driven process of this type, there are too many factors that can slant a prediction one way or the other. I will endeavor to make some relationship between the simulated percentages and CS’s.
The RMT Optibot’s debut in GW9 was not auspicious at 30% correct but bounced back in GW10 with a 70% result. It will be monitored over the remainder of the season.
The statistical predictions for GW11 are –
|Burnley||v||Crystal Palace||0.9-0.7||1-0||1-1 or 1-0|
|Arsenal||v||Tottenham||1.4-1||1-1 or 2-1||1-1 or 2-1|
|Leicester||v||West Brom||1.6-0.2||1-0||2-0 or 1-0|
The top sites from GW10 were –
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform what has worked for you in the past. They are listed to assist in possible lineup strategies, transfers, captain choices and as a check against your personal predictions.
I hope all are enjoying the prediction competition (open to all site regulars) and it is never too late to join in. Until next time Good Luck in FPL and the Prediction Game.