Premiership Game Score Predictions

Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW 11 2016

Once again midweek Champion’s League matches were contested by Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester. Be aware of who took part and may be rested, who was kept out and if there were any injuries. Following this weekend there is another International Break. So make hay while the sun shines.

Last week saw 11 sites recording correct results between 60-80%. The RMT Optibot came in at 70%. A decent week for the predictors. But, as always, “You pays your money, and you takes your choice”.

A review of the sites posting predictions reveals the following trends –

  • Bournemouth is a heavy favorite over Sunderland, and the Bot agrees with a 35.8% chance of a CS.
  • Burnley is a slight favorite over Crystal Palace, and the Bot agrees with a 33.8% chance of a CS.
  • Manchester City is a unanimous pick  over Middlesbrough, and the Bot agrees with a 44% chance of a CS.
  • West Ham vs Stoke City points to a draw, but the Bot favors the Hammers with a 48.4% chance of a CS.
  • Chelsea is a heavy favorite over Everton, and the Bot agrees with a 30% chance of a CS.
  • Arsenal is a slight favorite over Tottenham with the possibility of a draw, and the Bot agrees with a 26.4% chance of a CS for the Gunners and 22% chance of a CS for the Spurs.
  • Southampton is a heavy favorite on their visit to Hull City, and the Bot agrees with a 32.8% chance of a CS.
  • Liverpool is a unanimous pick over Watford, and the Bot agrees with a 33.4% chance of a CS.
  • Manchester United is a heavy favorite on their visit to Swansea, and the Bot agrees with a 30.2% chance of a CS.
  • Leicester City is a heavy favorite over West Brom, and the Bot agrees with a 39% chance of a CS.

The CS percentages will take a while to get a handle on. At present, I am looking at 40%, and above, as a good starting value to predict a CS, but this may not be the case. As with any math driven process of this type, there are too many factors that can slant a prediction one way or the other. I will endeavor to make some relationship between the simulated percentages and CS’s.

The RMT Optibot’s debut in GW9 was not auspicious at 30% correct but bounced back in GW10 with a 70% result. It will be monitored over the remainder of the season.

The statistical predictions for GW11 are – 

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
Bournemouth v Sunderland 1.7-0.2 2-0 2-0
Burnley v Crystal Palace 0.9-0.7 1-0 1-1 or 1-0
Man City v Middlesbrough 2.3-0.3 2-0 2-0
West Ham v Stoke 1.1-0.8 1-1 1-1
Chelsea v Everton 1.9-0.4 2-0 2-0
Arsenal v Tottenham 1.4-1 1-1 or 2-1 1-1 or 2-1
Hull City v Southampton 0.1-1.5 0-2 0-2
Liverpool v Watford 2.2-0.3 2-0 2-0
Swansea v Man United 0.3-1.3 0-1 0-1
Leicester v West Brom 1.6-0.2 1-0 2-0 or 1-0

The top sites from GW10 were – 

# of Predictions # correct wins/draws # Correct Exact Scores
premierleague 10 8 0 10 8 0 10 7 3 (LAWRO) 10 7 1 10 7 0
RMT Optibot 10 7 0 10 7 0 10 7 0 10 6 2 10 6 1 10 6 1

No claims are made that the results presented here will outperform what has worked for you in the past. They are listed to assist in possible lineup strategies, transfers, captain choices and as a check against your personal predictions.

I hope all are enjoying the prediction competition (open to all site regulars) and it is never too late to join in. Until next time Good Luck in FPL and the Prediction Game.


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78 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. 6th year in FPL & second full year writing for FantasyFootballFirst. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.

36 thoughts on “Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW 11 2016

  1. Thanks Mosc.

    Great help as always.
    RMT Optibot did very well last week with 7 correct results. Shame there are no predicted scores for this week.

  2. cheers for the article! pickford or stekelenburg in net? bearing in mind i have jagielka playing as well. could be risky doubling up on the everton D…think its a tough week for my back line

    • @bluedrew

      I would edge with Pickford. 1. for his Save potential. 2. Chelsea are playing very well at the moment – I would sooner face the likes of King and Wilson than Hazard and Costa

    • @bluedrew I’ve seen on the injury news side of this website that Stekelenburg won’t be fit. Just check to be sure. I can’t see that post now.

  3. @OldGoat @SecretZorro Okey Dokey, if you believe I won’t draw a reprimand. Here goes. Optibot score predictions for GW 11.

    BOU 1 – SUN 0
    BUR 1 – CRY 0
    MCI 1 – MID 0
    WHU 2 – STK 1
    CHE 2 – EVE 0
    ARS 1 – TOT 0
    HUL 0 – SOU 1
    LEI 1 – WBA 0
    LIV 1 – WAT 0
    SWA 0 – MUN 1
    These score predictions are based upon the Optibot’s simulations and are those with the highest percent returned. Hope this is of added value. :thumbup:

    • @mosc1938 I wonder why it has given West Ham 2 goals and the team hasn’t been scoring that much :cry-lol:

      • @welldonefantasy Have doubled checked and the 2-1 scoreline had recorded the highest % at 14.6 from the simulations. The data I have covers simulations generating 16 possible scorelines from 0-0 to 3-3. The next highest % for the WHU v STK game was WHU at 10.4% to win 1-0. So for some reason the Optibot favors WHU.

    • @mosc1938

      Thanks Mosc.
      As the Bot scored 70% correct results last week, then knowing which result it is predicting this week would be another useful tool for us Fantasy Managers.

      If the scores are tricky to obtain, then I would be more than happy with result predictions :10outof10:

  4. De gea pickford
    Stones Evans Gibson holebas love
    Allen cout firminho Walcott sterling
    Aguero Lukaku deeney

    Have already transferred Allen in for capoue. Would anyone recommend a 4point hit to get Austin in for deeney? Wary of theo not playin

    • @fantasysam

      Not a bad idea as Southampton play Hull. One goal from Austin would cancel out the hit, although it wouldn’t solve the problem of a non-playing Walcott

      • @OldGoat well id be happy to bench theo then if i had three attackers who im willing to play.

        as it stands im prob goin to put walcott in my 11 and deeney on the bench, with austin in my team theo goes to bench.

  5. Does anyone know where I can find xG charts that can be manipulated by team or player? I remember seeing them but can’t seem to locate them again.

  6. Something happened with internet and last min. switch did not take place…damn !! Fuchs stayed on bench and Evans on pitch…. bad start to GW before actual match starts :no: . Anyway…can’t help. Good luck all !!

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